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Strategic Analysis
This call seeks to revolutionize climate and sustainability scenario development by moving beyond traditional Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) to incorporate complex socio-economic, geopolitical, equity, and multi-scale dimensions. A winning proposal will demonstrate a highly transdisciplinary approach, integrating SSH expertise, co-design with diverse stakeholders, and robust international cooperation, especially with major GHG-emitting low and middle-income countries. The core challenge is to produce more relevant, robust, and actionable scenarios that directly inform policy interventions and contribute to global assessments like IPCC and IPBES.
TRL 2 → 6
Based on programme defaults
Actions should improve Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) or propose alternative approaches to address key challenges and gaps in current climate scenario frameworks.
They should extend the scope of scenarios beyond the 21st century, enlarge the future possibility space with more diverse narratives and drivers (e.g. post-growth), more explicit consideration of equity, justice, geopolitics and attention to inclusivity.
Area A: Integration of climate impacts and adaptation dimension - Develop approaches to better integrate physical climate impacts, adaptation, its costs and limits into mitigation pathways. This includes exploring how climate impacts including extremes and biophysical feedbacks affect mitigation strategies, testing the resilience of low-emission pathways to climate impacts, and how adaptation interacts with mitigation.
Area B: Improved scenario frameworks - Update baseline scenarios and expand scenario narratives to better address multi-scale, cross-sectoral issues and the needs of downstream assessments. Scenarios should capture a wider range of plausible futures to reflect changing socio-economic and environmental conditions (including a broader range of economic growth assumptions), technological advancements, evolving policy landscape and disruptive events. This includes extension of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenario framework, or development of alternatives, to enhance regional and local applicability, to support adaptation pathway development, and to improve relevance beyond the climate research community - notably for biodiversity and SDGs.
Area C: Improved policy representation - Enhance the granularity and diversity of policy (both mitigation and adaptation) representation in scenarios with more focus on implementation aspects to bridge the gap between modelled pathways and real-world action. Address social, geopolitical, economic and technological factors, considering interactions between industrial, trade, climate and other environmental policies (e.g. air pollution). Examine implications for competitiveness, employment, investment flows, energy security, supply chain resilience, technological innovation, international spillovers, as well as well-being. Investigate implementation and impact of recent commitments and initiatives (e.g. fossil fuel phase-out, Global Methane Pledge) and the impact of rising geopolitical tensions on their implementation, and mitigation action overall.
Actions should promote transdisciplinary collaboration and co-design with stakeholders to integrate diverse perspectives and needs.
They should develop and test new approaches, including communication, to improve uptake of results by various audiences.
The topic therefore requires inclusion of relevant SSH expertise, to produce meaningful and significant effects to enhance the societal impact of related research activities.
All projects funded from this topic are strongly encouraged to collaborate and envisage clustering activities together and with other relevant projects in and outside of Horizon Europe.
They should contribute to the organisation of the European Climate and Energy Modelling Platform conferences to foster dialogue between scientists, policymakers and other stakeholders.
They should also support inclusive and transparent model intercomparison exercises, aligning with the efforts of the European Climate and Energy Modelling Forum.
International cooperation is generally encouraged and specifically required with low, and lower/upper-middle-income countries – particularly major GHG emitters such as China (contributing to the EU-China Climate Change and Biodiversity (CCB) flagship initiative), India, Brazil and Indonesia.
It should ensure diverse, globally representative scenario space and, where appropriate, foster capacity development.
Strengthened collaboration and integration across research communities, better capturing interactions and trade-offs between various climate domains as well as between climate and non-climate objectives, such as biodiversity or pollution related. This will support more comprehensive and consistent evaluations, benefiting key global assessments (IPCC, IPBES) and improving their impact on European and global policies (European Green Deal, UNFCCC, CBD);
More relevant, robust and actionable scenarios that inform optimal policy interventions, serving the needs and supporting decision-making of diverse end-users at various spatial scales, from policymakers and planning authorities to businesses and civil society;
More globally representative, diverse, inclusive, transparent, widely accepted and better communicated scenarios that support climate-resilient development pathways and foster global consensus on climate action.
Research should contribute to closing major knowledge gaps on the changing climate together with their associated impacts and risks, on both society and nature.
It should also help develop tools to support decision-makers in designing and implementing effective mitigation and adaptation actions at various time and spatial scales while properly accounting for synergies and trade-offs with other policy objectives, such as just transition, territorial cohesion and leaving no one behind.
Supporting climate action (both mitigation and adaptation) in Europe and globally, through advancing climate science and the knowledge base underpinning actionable solutions, to accelerate the transition to a climate-neutral, climate-resilient and prosperous society.
Closing key knowledge gaps related to climate change, thereby contributing substantially to key European and international assessments such as IPCC, IPBES, EUCRA, and other initiatives such as the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) and the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) under the World Climate Research Programme.
Strengthening the European Research Area on climate change by boosting scientific excellence and capacity in an inclusive manner across the participating countries.
Maximising synergies between mitigation and adaptation and with other policy priorities such as biodiversity and ecosystem preservation and restoration, disaster-preparedness, digitalisation, circular economy, prosperity and competitiveness, strategic autonomy, security and resilience, just transition, and the Sustainable Development Goals by exploring co-benefits, trade-offs and potential unintended consequences of climate strategies and policy interventions.
European Green Deal
highThe European Green Deal is the EU's overarching growth strategy, aiming to transform the EU into a modern, resource-efficient, and competitive economy. Its primary goal is to make Europe climate-neutral by 2050, while also protecting biodiversity, reducing pollution, and promoting a circular economy.
Proposals must clearly articulate how they contribute to the overarching goals of the European Green Deal, particularly in areas like biodiversity protection, pollution reduction, sustainable resource management, and climate action. Given the topic, strong links to nature restoration, sustainable land use, and climate resilience are expected.
UNFCCC
highThe United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) is an international environmental treaty adopted in 1992, aiming to stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. It provides the framework for international climate negotiations, including the annual Conferences of the Parties (COPs) and agreements like the Kyoto Protocol and the Paris Agreement.
Proposals should demonstrate an understanding of the UNFCCC's objectives and how their research contributes to its goals, particularly regarding climate change mitigation, adaptation, and the development of robust climate scenarios. Given the topic, proposals should show how their scenarios can inform national and international climate policy processes under the UNFCCC framework.
CBD
highThe Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) is an international treaty adopted in 1992, with three main objectives: the conservation of biological diversity, the sustainable use of its components, and the fair and equitable sharing of the benefits arising from the utilization of genetic resources. It provides a global framework for action on biodiversity.
Proposals should clearly link their work to the CBD's objectives, especially concerning biodiversity conservation, sustainable use of natural resources, and ecosystem services. For this call on climate and sustainability transitions, proposals should illustrate how their scenarios integrate biodiversity considerations and contribute to achieving CBD goals alongside climate objectives.
Green transition
highSustainable Development Goals
highThe Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are a collection of 17 interlinked global goals designed to be a 'blueprint to achieve a better and more sustainable future for all.' Adopted by the United Nations in 2015, they address global challenges including poverty, inequality, climate change, environmental degradation, peace, and justice.
Proposals should identify which specific SDGs their work contributes to (e.g., SDG 15: Life on Land, SDG 13: Climate Action, SDG 6: Clean Water and Sanitation) and explain the nature of this contribution. While not an EU-specific policy, alignment with SDGs demonstrates a broader commitment to global sustainability.
Digital transition
mediumA more resilient, competitive, inclusive and democratic Europe
medium1. Admissibility conditions — Proposal page limit and layout described in Annex A and Annex E of the Horizon Europe Work Programme General Annexes. Proposal page limits and layout: described in Part B of the Application Form available in the Submission System.
2. Eligible Countries — described in Annex B of the Work Programme General Annexes. A number of non-EU/non-Associated Countries that are not automatically eligible for funding have made specific provisions for making funding available for their participants in Horizon Europe projects. See the information in the Horizon Europe Programme Guide .
3. Other Eligibility Conditions — If projects use satellite-based earth observation, positioning, navigation and/or related timing data and services, beneficiaries must make use of Copernicus and/or Galileo/EGNOS (other data and services may additionally be used). The following additional eligibility criteria apply: The consortium must include as beneficiary or associated partner at least three independent legal entities established in three different low or lower/upper-middle-income countries[[ https://datahelpdesk.worldbank.org/knowledgebase/articles/906519-world-bank-country-and-lendinggroups ; standard Horizon Europe funding rules apply - only participants from some of these countries are automatically eligible for funding]]. described in Annex B of the Work Programme General Annexes.
4. Financial and operational capacity and exclusion — described in Annex C of the Work Programme General Annexes.
5a. Evaluation and award: Award criteria, scoring and thresholds — To ensure a balanced portfolio covering different research areas (A, B and C), grants will be awarded to applications not only in order of ranking but also to at least two highest ranked applications in each area, provided that the corresponding applications attain all thresholds. are described in Annex D of the Work Programme General Annexes.
5b. Evaluation and award: Submission and evaluation processes — are described in Annex F of the Work Programme General Annexes and the Online Manual .
5c. Evaluation and award: Indicative timeline for evaluation and grant agreement — described in Annex F of the Work Programme General Annexes.
6. Legal and financial set-up of the grants — Beneficiaries will be subject to the following additional obligations regarding open science practices: Open access to any new modules, models or tools developed from scratch or substantially improved with the use of EU funding under the action must be ensured through documentation, availability of model code and input data developed under the action. Eligible costs will take the form of a lump sum as defined in the Decision of 7 July 2021 authorising the use of lump sum contributions under the Horizon Europe Programme – the Framework Programme for Research and Innovation (2021-2027) – and in actions under the Research and Training Programme of the European Atomic Energy Community (2021-2025) [[This decision is available on the Funding and Tenders Portal, in the reference documents section for Horizon Europe, under ‘Simplified costs decisions’ or through this link: https://ec.europa.eu/info/funding-tenders/opportunities/docs/2021-2027/horizon/guidance/ls-decision_he_en.pdf ]]. described in Annex G of the Work Programme General Annexes.
described in the [specific topic of the Work Programme]
Application form templates — the application form specific to this call is available in the Submission System Standard application form (HE RIA, IA) Evaluation form templates — will be used with the necessary adaptations Standard evaluation form (HE RIA, IA) Guidance HE Programme Guide Model Grant Agreements (MGA) HE MGA HE Unit MGA Lump Sum MGA Operating Grants MGA Framework Partnership Agreement FPA Call-specific instructions Detailed budget table (HE LS) Guidance: "Lump sums - what do I need to know?"
HE Main Work Programme 2026-2027 – 1. General Introduction HE Main Work Programme 2026-2027 – 8. Climate, Energy and Mobility HE Main Work Programme 2026-2027 – 15. General Annexes HE Programme Guide HE Framework Programme 2021/695 HE Specific Programme Decision 2021/764 EU Financial Regulation 2024/2509 Decision authorising the use of lump sum contributions under the Horizon Europe Programme Rules for Legal Entity Validation, LEAR Appointment and Financial Capacity Assessment EU Grants AGA — Annotated Model Grant Agreement Funding & Tenders Portal Online Manual Funding & Tenders Portal Terms and Conditions Funding & Tenders Portal Privacy Statement
Evaluators will prioritize proposals that clearly articulate methodological innovations in scenario development, extending beyond the 21st century and incorporating diverse narratives (e.g., post-growth) and drivers (e.g., equity, geopolitics). Strong emphasis will be placed on the integration of climate impacts and adaptation, improved policy representation with a focus on implementation, and genuine transdisciplinary collaboration, including SSH expertise and co-design with end-users. Demonstrable commitment to international cooperation, particularly with specified low and middle-income countries, and contributions to major global assessments will be critical for success.
Everything the call asks for, seen from the call's point of view. Each line shows what answers it, and which partner carries it.
This matrix lists everything the call asks for: outcomes, impacts, scope, the requirements buried in the call text, and policy alignment. Sign up free and GrantForge tracks each line against the concept you build.
| Requirement | Covered by | Carried | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scope activities | |||
| SC1Actions should improve Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) or propose alternative approaches to address key challenges and gaps in current climate scenario frameworks. | · | · | Sign up to track |
| SC2They should extend the scope of scenarios beyond the 21st century, enlarge the future possibility space with more diverse narratives and drivers (e.g. post-growth), more explicit consideration of equity, justice, geopolitics and attention to inclusivity. | · | · | Sign up to track |
| SC3Area A: Integration of climate impacts and adaptation dimension - Develop approaches to better integrate physical climate impacts, adaptation, its costs and limits into mitigation pathways. This includes exploring how climate impacts including extremes and biophysical feedbacks affect mitigation strategies, testing the resilience of low-emission pathways to climate impacts, and how adaptation interacts with mitigation. | · | · | Sign up to track |
| SC4Area B: Improved scenario frameworks - Update baseline scenarios and expand scenario narratives to better address multi-scale, cross-sectoral issues and the needs of downstream assessments. Scenarios should capture a wider range of plausible futures to reflect changing socio-economic and environmental conditions (including a broader range of economic growth assumptions), technological advancements, evolving policy landscape and disruptive events. This includes extension of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenario framework, or development of alternatives, to enhance regional and local applicability, to support adaptation pathway development, and to improve relevance beyond the climate research community - notably for biodiversity and SDGs. | · | · | Sign up to track |
| SC5Area C: Improved policy representation - Enhance the granularity and diversity of policy (both mitigation and adaptation) representation in scenarios with more focus on implementation aspects to bridge the gap between modelled pathways and real-world action. Address social, geopolitical, economic and technological factors, considering interactions between industrial, trade, climate and other environmental policies (e.g. air pollution). Examine implications for competitiveness, employment, investment flows, energy security, supply chain resilience, technological innovation, international spillovers, as well as well-being. Investigate implementation and impact of recent commitments and initiatives (e.g. fossil fuel phase-out, Global Methane Pledge) and the impact of rising geopolitical tensions on their implementation, and mitigation action overall. | · | · | Sign up to track |
| SC6Actions should promote transdisciplinary collaboration and co-design with stakeholders to integrate diverse perspectives and needs. | · | · | Sign up to track |
| SC7They should develop and test new approaches, including communication, to improve uptake of results by various audiences. | · | · | Sign up to track |
| SC8The topic therefore requires inclusion of relevant SSH expertise, to produce meaningful and significant effects to enhance the societal impact of related research activities. | · | · | Sign up to track |
| SC9All projects funded from this topic are strongly encouraged to collaborate and envisage clustering activities together and with other relevant projects in and outside of Horizon Europe. | · | · | Sign up to track |
| SC10They should contribute to the organisation of the European Climate and Energy Modelling Platform conferences to foster dialogue between scientists, policymakers and other stakeholders. | · | · | Sign up to track |
| SC11They should also support inclusive and transparent model intercomparison exercises, aligning with the efforts of the European Climate and Energy Modelling Forum. | · | · | Sign up to track |
| SC12International cooperation is generally encouraged and specifically required with low, and lower/upper-middle-income countries – particularly major GHG emitters such as China (contributing to the EU-China Climate Change and Biodiversity (CCB) flagship initiative), India, Brazil and Indonesia. | · | · | Sign up to track |
| SC13It should ensure diverse, globally representative scenario space and, where appropriate, foster capacity development. | · | · | Sign up to track |
| Expected outcomes | |||
| EO1Strengthened collaboration and integration across research communities, better capturing interactions and trade-offs between various climate domains as well as between climate and non-climate objectives, such as biodiversity or pollution related. This will support more comprehensive and consistent evaluations, benefiting key global assessments (IPCC, IPBES) and improving their impact on European and global policies (European Green Deal, UNFCCC, CBD); | · | · | Sign up to track |
| EO2More relevant, robust and actionable scenarios that inform optimal policy interventions, serving the needs and supporting decision-making of diverse end-users at various spatial scales, from policymakers and planning authorities to businesses and civil society; | · | · | Sign up to track |
| EO3More globally representative, diverse, inclusive, transparent, widely accepted and better communicated scenarios that support climate-resilient development pathways and foster global consensus on climate action. | · | · | Sign up to track |
| Other requirements | |||
| No other requirements in this call. | |||
| Expected impacts | |||
| EI1Research should contribute to closing major knowledge gaps on the changing climate together with their associated impacts and risks, on both society and nature. | · | · | Sign up to track |
| EI2It should also help develop tools to support decision-makers in designing and implementing effective mitigation and adaptation actions at various time and spatial scales while properly accounting for synergies and trade-offs with other policy objectives, such as just transition, territorial cohesion and leaving no one behind. | · | · | Sign up to track |
| EI3Supporting climate action (both mitigation and adaptation) in Europe and globally, through advancing climate science and the knowledge base underpinning actionable solutions, to accelerate the transition to a climate-neutral, climate-resilient and prosperous society. | · | · | Sign up to track |
| EI4Closing key knowledge gaps related to climate change, thereby contributing substantially to key European and international assessments such as IPCC, IPBES, EUCRA, and other initiatives such as the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) and the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) under the World Climate Research Programme. | · | · | Sign up to track |
| EI5Strengthening the European Research Area on climate change by boosting scientific excellence and capacity in an inclusive manner across the participating countries. | · | · | Sign up to track |
| EI6Maximising synergies between mitigation and adaptation and with other policy priorities such as biodiversity and ecosystem preservation and restoration, disaster-preparedness, digitalisation, circular economy, prosperity and competitiveness, strategic autonomy, security and resilience, just transition, and the Sustainable Development Goals by exploring co-benefits, trade-offs and potential unintended consequences of climate strategies and policy interventions. | · | · | Sign up to track |
| Underlying policies | |||
| POL1european green dealThe European Green Deal is the EU's overarching growth strategy, aiming to transform the EU into a modern, resource-efficient, and competitive economy. Its primary goal is to make Europe climate-neutral by 2050, while also protecting biodiversity, reducing pollution, and promoting a circular economy. | · | · | Sign up to track |
| POL2unfcccThe United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) is an international environmental treaty adopted in 1992, aiming to stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. It provides the framework for international climate negotiations, including the annual Conferences of the Parties (COPs) and agreements like the Kyoto Protocol and the Paris Agreement. | · | · | Sign up to track |
| POL3cbdThe Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) is an international treaty adopted in 1992, with three main objectives: the conservation of biological diversity, the sustainable use of its components, and the fair and equitable sharing of the benefits arising from the utilization of genetic resources. It provides a global framework for action on biodiversity. | · | · | Sign up to track |
| POL4green transitionThe call is a cornerstone of the EU’s green transition, aiming to decarbonize energy systems through circular, sustainable energy storage and infrastructure retrofitting. | · | · | Sign up to track |
| POL5sustainable development goalsThe Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are a collection of 17 interlinked global goals designed to be a 'blueprint to achieve a better and more sustainable future for all.' Adopted by the United Nations in 2015, they address global challenges including poverty, inequality, climate change, environmental degradation, peace, and justice. | · | · | Sign up to track |
The binding rules of this call. Items marked auto are verified by GrantForge from the call and the template. The others are yours to confirm.
LMIC entities auto-eligible
Low/middle-income country entities are automatically eligible for funding.
EU space data infrastructures
If the project uses satellite-based Earth observation, positioning, navigation or timing data/services, beneficiaries must use Copernicus and/or Galileo/EGNOS. Other sources may be added but not substitute EU infrastructures.
Civil applications only
Horizon Europe funds exclusively civil applications. Research with exclusive military or dual-use application is excluded.
Gender Equality Plan
Having a Gender Equality Plan (GEP) is an eligibility criterion for public bodies, research organisations, and higher education institutions from Member States and Associated Countries.
Open Science
Mandatory open access to peer-reviewed scientific publications and responsible management of research data (FAIR principles, DMP required).
Talk to the Grant Coach to build your concept. The steps below fill in as it takes shape, and your coverage tracks the progress. You can refine everything once your project workspace is created.
Step 1 of 2 · Build your concept
The problems this call frames, and who they affect. Your concept and plan address them.
Existing Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) and scenario frameworks often lack the scope to adequately address futures beyond the 21st century, incorporate diverse narratives (e.g., post-growth), or explicitly consider critical dimensions such as equity, justice, geopolitics, and inclusivity. This limits their relevance and actionability for comprehensive policy design.
Current mitigation pathways often do not sufficiently integrate physical climate impacts, adaptation costs, and limits, nor do they fully explore how climate impacts (including extremes and biophysical feedbacks) affect mitigation strategies or the resilience of low-emission pathways. This leads to incomplete and potentially unrealistic scenario projections.
Scenarios often lack the granularity and diversity in policy representation needed to bridge the gap between modelled pathways and real-world action. They frequently overlook implementation aspects and complex interactions between industrial, trade, climate, and other environmental policies, as well as implications for competitiveness, employment, and well-being.
Current scenario frameworks may not adequately capture a wide range of plausible futures reflecting changing socio-economic and environmental conditions globally, particularly in low and middle-income countries. Their applicability at regional and local scales, and their relevance beyond the climate research community (e.g., for biodiversity and SDGs), need significant improvement to support diverse end-users.
Researchers and academics in climate science, integrated assessment modeling, socio-economic studies, environmental policy, and related fields who will benefit from improved models, data, and collaborative frameworks.
Decision-makers at European, national, regional, and local levels responsible for designing and implementing climate mitigation and adaptation policies, including those related to the European Green Deal, UNFCCC, and CBD.
Companies and sectors impacted by climate change and climate policies, seeking robust scenarios to inform investment, innovation, supply chain resilience, and transition strategies.
NGOs, advocacy groups, and local communities interested in climate action, just transition, equity, and sustainable development, who can use improved scenarios for advocacy and local planning.
Organisations such as the IPCC, IPBES, EUCRA, UNFCCC, and CBD, which rely on comprehensive and robust climate and sustainability scenarios for their global assessments and policy recommendations.
Countries, particularly major GHG emitters like China, India, Brazil, and Indonesia, that require enhanced capacity and globally representative scenarios to inform their national climate action and sustainable development pathways.
Step 2 of 2 · Build your concept
The long-term impacts your project should drive — this shapes the objectives next.
By closing knowledge gaps on climate impacts and risks, the project will enable better planning and implementation of adaptation strategies, leading to increased resilience of communities against climate-related disasters.
The project will develop tools and scenarios that support decision-makers in designing and implementing effective mitigation and adaptation actions, properly accounting for synergies and trade-offs with other policy objectives like just transition and territorial cohesion.
By advancing climate science and providing actionable knowledge, the project will support climate action globally, accelerating the transition to a climate-neutral, climate-resilient, and prosperous society.
The project will close key knowledge gaps and boost scientific excellence and capacity in an inclusive manner, contributing substantially to major European and international assessments such as IPCC, IPBES, and other global initiatives.
By exploring co-benefits, trade-offs, and potential unintended consequences of climate strategies, the project will maximise synergies between mitigation, adaptation, and other policy priorities like biodiversity, circular economy, just transition, and the Sustainable Development Goals.